Thoughts on the market situation 2015
Of course, it happens not every year that a very large collection is offered to us, which can be bought and then - actually unintentionally –will be sold en bloc to a new collector. There are not so many collections, which come on the market. Such a sale of course inflate the turnover. We omit this, when we speak generally about the situation for the year 2014. The year of 2014 has taken more or less the identical course of business, as the very good year 2013. There are also some new collectors of classic Swiss stamps, amongst which we discovered one, who has all the signs to become in future soon to be one of the really great classic Swiss collectors of all times. We will be knowing this more precisely in 10 years. In all those yearly considerations I only talk about the Classic Swiss Market (1843 to about 1870). I regret to say that the situation with the issues of the 20th century is completely different. There are many reasons for this. In contrast to classic issues, the 20th century issues generally not supported. It really happens very often that at major auction, where the multitude of the offers is higher weighted than a proportional sale to real market prices, that we react in 60 to 80% only to support the market even we do not need this material at all. Would we refrain from these purchases, you can imagine the disappointment of the consignor, who would receive even less for their goods! Fortunately, there are always some price breakers upwards, where rare or beautiful pieces achieve dream prices, which nobody had expected.
The demand in the market seems very good to us. In certain areas better than ever before! After our experience - especially this year - always those areas will go to very good, if you can offer a whole collection of them. So we had several interested clients for a very nice collection of oval cancellations of the canton Tessin. It was unthinkable to split the collection. Exactly the same happened for several general classic Swiss collections, which are purchased mostly by dealers.
It makes no sense, to split the different less important collection of classic Switzerland (Kantonals, rayons, Strubel, perforated Sitting Helvetia) and offer them individually. The demand was everywhere equally good. If one has to offer many interesting things, there is a good demand. If nothing is offered, it is disappearing. It makes more sense, when I point out those areas which seem unfairly still neglected. For example the area of the geographical collectors. They gather not all classic Swiss stamps, but only the cancellations of a canton or even just a district or a city. You only collect, which is financially possible and no one criticizes a missing piece. There are currently several cantons, where an entry would be worthwhile. I think for example of Graubünden, Aargau, Bern, Vaud and Zurich, Thurgau, St. Gallen. As far as the canton of Tessin, we have seen a huge demand of oval postmarks. However, the canton of Tessin has a still larger and equally interesting number of bar cancellations, which are currently much neglected in contrast to the oval cancellations.
Birthday collections seem to be ideal for collectors who like to pass on their own collection to a descendant (mostly grandchild or godchild and not necessarily son or daughter). The date of birth (only the month and day) is collected in such a collection. If there is a number of pieces that carry their own birthday date as an entry to a general collection, it gets a personal touch with completely personal pieces which will have no importance for someone else in the world. It is much harder giving away such personal inheritance. Thus, an interest in stamp collecting and the inherited collection in particular can be awakened. On the one side it would give the satisfaction that the collection gathered during decades remains together and is not dispersed in one go in all winds.
Prospects for the coming months and years
Compared to last year the conditions have not much changed. My assumptions were confirmed. Even today, we can summarize some points:
- Banknote presses are still running, although not as quick as before and everywhere at the same speed. Money is available.
- As a result, the risk of inflation is heard. But also in 2015 this will still not be a big issue for the Western countries, in particular not for the Switzerland.
- The long-awaited turnaround after the crisis years of 2008 will happen from America and Asia – not from Europe. This is already reflected in the dollar exchange market. The dollar is now much higher than a year ago.
- The euro is doing in contrast, harder. Mainly due to the steady, but never adjusted problems of the southern countries including France. Germany, as the engine of the EU, there could arise a problem.
- The stock market in the Switzerland is going well. Some see overheating is coming (especially in the real estate market) and nobody dares a new entry. When selling shares the main question is where to invest next!
- The bond market offers a little return. Transaction costs and management fees erode virtually the entire yield. Quite apart from the taxes!
- There is global politics uncertainty due to the various conflicts or wars in the Middle East. You can certainly have repercussions on the investments.
- These last points quite keep talking for an investment in alternative areas, such as for example the classic Swiss stamps. Thus to make not only a desirable investment in tangible assets, but also in the strength of the Swiss franc and thus in a Swiss heritage. A direct return you can here neither expect nor demand. Neither should we expect when investing in the art market or gems or gold. The big advantage - and in my eyes, the most important reason to buy ever - is located in the personal joy you can feel every day! It is absolutely understandable that people who focused their whole life to put together a small or even a large asset, are now dissatisfied. They can no longer expect certain returns. But if this is no more safe, they want to afford at least something else. So you book cruises or extended vacations all over the world. Beautiful, they certainly should do that. But there might be a time when you no longer feel mobile and safe enough to travel 10 month a year. Then, alternative investments such as the classic Swiss Stamps, are very excellent. You can watch, study and enjoy these stamps daily, even if you feel more comfortable in your own four walls than out there in the big wide world. Gladly we advise you without any obligation, if you have any questions.
It is inconceivable to close such a summary without thanking those who made possible another outstanding year for us. Let me start by thanking you. With your purchases or sales you did help us a lot. I don’t want to forget my son, who used to independently edit this catalogue for years, his wife, who prepares the lots with me and presents all the material to be ready for sale, my wife giving us a hand daily if needed in the Office and our relatives who faithfully help us for years in the shipping and packaging of catalogs. Without these various aids, there would not be our business!
December 2014
Gottfried Honegger