03 honegger philatelie Wissenswertes

Thoughts on the market situation 2022

I notice that this report is being written almost two weeks earlier than last year! As we get older, we often have the impression that everything is happening faster and faster, that we have less and less time for deferred projects or work. It is possible that you also need more time to realise them because you act less spontaneously and think everything through more deeply. Former colleagues would certainly object with a quiet undertone that you have only yourself to blame: "It's your own fault, why didn't you ever retire?" Well, the retirement of a fully working self-employed person is one of those things! For my part, I'm trying to settle in here slowly, with one or the other day off! This is what my wife and I practised again this year after more far-reaching holiday plans had to be cancelled once more. We looked for and found the sun again in Ticino and saw what beautiful valleys this canton has to show! Not only, but especially for philatelists, this is an Eldorado. One is always amazed to find small hamlets on steep mountain slopes, whose postmarks one knows, but which one has never been able to locate until now. On our personal wish list for next year is probably the canton of Grisons. Even there, we are still far from knowing all the valleys and villages!

Our agenda shows quite a few cancelled fairs, exchanges and dates for 2021! What was still possible, the Covid 19 pandemic has given dates. It can easily be summarized: until the trade fair in Basel at the beginning of November, actually all scheduled dates fell victim to the red pencil! Who would have thought that the fair in Sindelfingen had to be cancelled for the second time in a row? Unfortunately, this has made the personal contacts with foreign clients that have been customary for many years impossible. Well, at least some of them made the journey to the fair in Basel. This opportunity showed that there are still committed philatelists who would like to acquire missing and suitable items. In any case, we were positively surprised and were also able to make interesting purchases.

Looking back on the whole of the 2021 business year once again fills us with great gratitude. The end of the year is still six weeks away, but it looks like our turnover will be at least the same as last year. With a bit of luck, however, up to 10% higher! It has to be said that in 2020 the first few months were still "normal", i.e. without any major restrictions due to the pandemic. 2021, on the other hand, was more or less fully affected. This renewed increase in sales has less to do with me than with our son Markus! He has not only been able to acquire a whole series of compilations and entire collections, but has also been able to place some of them again! It makes you feel much less worried to reach for the hiking boots when you know that at home your son has things fully "under control". What's more, he understands much more about large parts of the business than his father. And the father does not regret this at all, but is happy about it! For his aim has always been that everything that he does at least as well as he does himself should be handed over to his successor. Parallel to this, however, is the obligatory assumption of responsibility for it! And as long as he makes fewer, or at least no more, mistakes than I do, the world is actually still quite alright for us.

But the fact that these sales can be achieved at all is indeed a gift for both of us! Just like last year, our business was one of those that could rather benefit from the pandemic! Many customers obviously had a lot more time to spend on stamps once again. This resulted in more frequent orders from the same customers than in previous years. But there were also orders from completely new collectors, some of whom were still in their apprenticeship phase. Of course, the latter are not able to make huge sales. But when you see the diligence and interest with which they approach a set collection goal, you can only "take your hat off". These new customers are very pleasing. These are the future philatelists who will help decide whether Swiss philately will thrive. And some of the future great connoisseurs may well emerge from them. Getting such new customers is one thing. But to receive more interesting pieces or entire collections each year is another. Obviously, this includes above all trust in the merchant. You can't buy that, you have to work for it over decades. And the fact that we are able to experience this fills us with great gratitude, both towards the buyers and the sellers.

If a review of the year is only about business, about economic factors, this seems to me to be a very one-sided view. When we are shown the plight of refugees all over the world on a daily basis, we get the impression that we "Western" countries must have a particularly generous patron god. Does this protection of life and limb also cause us to be particularly grateful? It is not the case that we in the rich West are spared all misfortune. We too have catastrophes and pandemics. It's just that we've been given much better ways to fight them. The vaccines against Covid 19 were available here much earlier than in Africa or other developing regions. We have nursing staff in hospitals and old people's homes who are currently stretched to the limit and who take the risk of infection upon themselves every day and try to keep as many of those in need of protection alive as possible. If there is not a feeling of gratitude towards fellow human beings who take on such things, we are doing something wrong. But we can try to change that. (Reaching for your wallet might be a little easier this pre-Christmas season!)

Let me take a look into the future this year as well. You don't need a crystal ball for that. We are currently living in difficult, turbulent times. The political problems cannot be solved in the short term. It is not even possible to list all the sources of conflict that threaten practically every continent. Neither in the Near East nor in the Far East do people want to "retire". America will have to nibble away at the accumulated debts for many years to come. And whether President Biden will be able to get his reform programs through Congress reasonably unscathed is anything but certain. In Germany, the first thing to do is to prove that the new government can go further than the old one under Angela Merkel, who did a lot, probably more than her European colleagues, in terms of intergovernmental understanding. And yet: often a change in government does a country good. New ideas come in and who knows, perhaps people who can make a positive difference. But in Europe, a leader has stepped down and the question is who will take over this position. Dealing with Eastern despots will be and remain the main problem for the entire West. And the outcome of these conflicts could well tip to either side.

So the political outlook appears to be mediocre. There are quite a few storm clouds in the political sky.

However, the economic outlook - in my opinion - is quite different! Let me list a few here:

  1. Inflation will pick up again from 2022 onwards. It is probably in this context that central banks are scaling back their support purchases in the securities markets. I do not think that this will lead to an economic collapse, as the economy is doing well to very well (apart from the recent supply problems, which are now being addressed). But all this is not a rosy outlook for the stock and bond markets. People will react cautiously and reservedly with new investments. This could well result in an increased move into tangible assets, and here without further ado also into the classic Swiss stamps.
  2. The Swiss franc is one of the strongest currencies in the world. An investment in CHF will continue to be sought after in the future (which may well cause the Swiss National Bank the occasional bellyache). When buying old Swiss stamps, one therefore automatically invests in this strong currency, which in the case of a later sale (regardless of the pure stamp value) to a foreigner can often also lead to a currency gain when converting into one's own, weaker currency.
  3. Employment in the target countries of our business plays a role. However, this is not bad in most of the countries that are important for us. Unemployment figures may rise in the very short term because all too many people have been made redundant as a result of the pandemic and now have to be painstakingly recruited and trained again. But given the good order situation, this problem will be solved. Just like the current supply problems of suppliers, which still exist. Just like the current delivery problems of suppliers, which still exist. (It is possible that "just-in-time production" has been exaggerated somewhat in the West).
  4. People have hardly been able to book "expensive" holidays for two years now (and there may be one more to come). Overseas flights have more or less completely collapsed, as have cruises, and numbers are only now starting to slowly recover. Even the popular holidays in Europe have been cancelled all over the place. The regulations and inconveniences have mostly advised one to take vacations in one's own country. And they cost less. In other words, many high earners were unable to spend their money at all. This is likely to lead to investments in the classic old Swiss stamps here and there in the coming year. You can see this at auctions in Europe, but especially in the USA at the moment. And not only for paintings, but especially for philately! Compared to those prices for sought-after old USA stamps, even the most expensive (six-figure) old Swiss covers can be had for mere tips! And this with much smaller awareness figures! Exactly for the latter reason they are offered much more rarely and if once, one should look at the object (including the appraisals!) carefully as an interested buyer!
  5. In my view, there is another very important reason to acquire one or the other Old Swiss piece, depending on one's own possibilities: these are capable of giving a real collector real pleasure every time he reaches for his album. Each piece is different. With many of them, he will remember where he was able to acquire them. These are pure moments of happiness that you can experience with any dedicated collector when he shows you his collection privately or at an exhibition. I have trouble imagining that an investor also feels genuine joy every time he adds a batch of new shares or bonds to his portfolio. Typically, these securities are rarely if ever held in one's hands! They are simply held for you by the bank. That actually rules out a closer relationship.

What may surprise new collectors: it does not matter at all what you collect and in which price category they are! Such experiences of happiness are undoubtedly also possible with modern stamps. Why not with motif stamps. Whether someone enjoys mushrooms or railways on stamps or whether he wants to fill his preprinted album with the pictured newer vintages, I think that he can also feel joy in such values, if he could once again find a sought- after piece. Since we are not active in these areas, I can only speak for our own delivery area, the old, classic Swiss stamps (from pre-philately to about 1870). And there this sentence, that these pieces give an interested collector a real feeling of happiness when he finds one again or even just looks at it in an album, is definitely true. It may take years before someone can afford one of the famous top pieces. But then his joy is all the greater for it! But also with objects that are "affordable" from far away, like the completion of a Rayon type plate, one experiences this again and again. A collector with a focus on postal history who spends considerable sums for rare covers with large frankings or for letters to distant countries may not always understand this. But when a collector spends years of effort to reconstruct a complete type plate or a whole sheet of a classic number, I have experienced that for such a collector it is like the coincidence of Christmas and Easter, when he suddenly can acquire and hold in his hands a piece he has been looking for for years! Or when a collector who collects for his children or godchildren or grandchildren their birthday dates (always only month and day, but of all attainable years!) and once again receives a few suitable pieces for the next gift! One should leave everyone his freedom to acquire what he can afford and what he likes. What pleases the collector, I say, not some jury whose members naturally have their own preferences and who may understand much less about his field of collecting than the collector himself! The unjudged exhibitions are recommended! This is especially true for these special, often very personal collections. The evaluation of a catalogue collection, on the other hand, is much easier. There, the jurors know exactly what is available and also know the rarities and can therefore usually classify the objects quite well in a cross-comparison.

We have made an effort to put together an offer for most of our customers. Of course, you can never quite please everyone. But if you don't find what you are looking for in this catalogue, if you want certain pieces but are not satisfied with the quality or the price, please let us know. Even a slightly lower quality can often result in a huge price reduction. A better, more beautiful piece will of course also cost more. And don't forget: we never have our whole stock in the catalogue! Therefore, for many lots, there are definitely alternative pieces available, which we will be happy to offer you without obligation. One of my sadly deceased colleagues gave me the motto when I was young: "A beautiful stamp is still beautiful, even if you have long forgotten what you paid for it". If you can live by that phrase, you'll have a lot of fun with your collection! (I try to do the same with the few pieces I acquired years ago, usually decades ago, and put aside for myself!)

Schmerikon, 12. November 2021
Gottfried Honegger

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